Planet rugby revolves at a frightening pace these days. Slacken your intensity for a second, as some notable Barbarian players did last weekend, and you will instantly be found out. Even good sides can suddenly be rumbled, as has happened to both Northampton and Saracens lately. The expressions on the faces of Graham Henry and Robbie Deans as the Wallabies waltzed past the half-century mark at Twickenham were the precise polar opposite of Auckland the previous month.
It makes accurate forecasting of future events an increasingly murky game. The announcement of the British and Irish Lions tour itinerary to Australia in 2013 is a case in point. We now know the fixtures but confidently calling the Lions' first-choice XV for the opening Test in Brisbane on 22 June is doomed to failure. Picking it now is like telling your bank manager you're convinced your account balance will look far healthier in two year's time.
Then again, there is no harm in a little optimism occasionally. Imagine if Wales maintain their current upturn and England ever stop bickering long enough to get their act together on the field. Look at Scotland's young, improving side and reassure yourself that Ireland will unearth one or two gems as well. Then remember what a wonderful series the Lions enjoyed in South Africa in 2009 and how much fresh interest it breathed into the most glorious – and commercially attractive – of anachronisms.
Excited yet? Well, let's get the pen and paper out and place the Rugby Football Union reviews and managerial applications momentarily to one side. Think about the Wallabies and what it will take to subdue the backline talents of Kurtley Beale, Quade Cooper, Digby Ioane, Berrick Barnes and the vastly underrated Adam Ashley-Cooper. Then start by assembling a big yet mobile pack with a grizzly heart and a lust for battle. Heaven knows if Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins will be fit and available but, if they are, they should be the first names on the team-sheet, closely followed by the inspirational Sam Warburton.
While any number of Welsh locks will also be in the frame – Bradley Davies, Alun Wyn Jones, Luke Charteris – let us assume Richie Gray and Courtney Lawes continue to grow in Test stature over the next season and a half. Throw in Sean O'Brien and Toby Faletau and you can afford to leave out players of the calibre of Jamie Heaslip, John Barclay, Tom Wood and the emerging Ben Morgan. That has to be a promising indicator, even at this distance.
The backline? It would lovely if there is one last hurrah left in Brian O'Driscoll, who will be 34 by then. The tries he and Jason Robinson scored at The Gabba in the first Lions Test of 2001 remain among the most stirring rugby moments I've witnessed; maybe it is asking too much to expect a sequel of equal quality. Even if BOD's partnership with Jamie Roberts cannot be rekindled there are enough quality Welsh alternatives to fall back on, not to mention someone like Manu Tuilagi. George North on the wing is a rising star and Ben Foden would flourish in such company. Leigh Halfpenny, Rob Kearney, Liam Williams, Scott Williams, Chris Ashton, Sean Lamont, Jonny Sexton, Chris Cusiter … the midweek team should also be well worth watching. The big wing Tim Visser, soon to represent Scotland, could become the first Dutch Lion, although one or two cloggers have toured before him. For now I have discounted the likes of Mike Phillips and James Hook, both in self-imposed French exile. Those not involved at Test level next year are going to be pushed to make it.
Which leads us, naturally, to the coach. The current front-runners are Warren Gatland, Declan Kidney and, as ever, Sir Ian McGeechan. The Lions, though, are looking for someone who can devote a single-minded year to the project. If England do not grab him first, Nick Mallett would have to be a strong contender: those who have seen him galvanise Barbarian sides with limited training time swear he is as good a man-manager as any. Whoever gets the gig, the tour is already an enticing prospect.
Possible 2013 Lions XV Foden (England): North (Wales), O'Driscoll (Ireland), Roberts (Wales), Bowe (Ireland); Priestland (Wales), Youngs (England); Jenkins (Wales), Cronin (Ireland), A Jones (Wales), Gray (Scotland), Lawes (England), O'Brien (Ireland), Warburton (Wales, capt), Faletau (Wales).
